Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Title: Clinical application of the Melbourne risk prediction tool in a high-risk upper abdominal surgical population: an observational cohort study.
Austin Authors: Parry, S;Denehy, Linda;Berney, Susan C ;Browning, L
Institutional Author: Austin Health Post-Operative Surveillance Team (POST) Investigators
Affiliation: Department of Physiotherapy, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
Department of Physiotherapy, School of Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Alan Gilbert Building, Level 7, 161 Barry Street, Carlton 3053, VIC, Australia
Issue Date: 16-Aug-2013
Publication information: Physiotherapy 2013; 100(1): 47-53
Abstract: (1) To determine the ability of the Melbourne risk prediction tool to predict a pulmonary complication as defined by the Melbourne Group Scale in a medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery population during the postoperative period; (2) to identify the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications; and (3) to examine the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications in this high-risk population.Observational cohort study.Tertiary Australian referral centre.50 individuals who underwent medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery. Presence of postoperative pulmonary complications was screened daily for seven days using the Melbourne Group Scale (Version 2). Postoperative pulmonary risk prediction was calculated according to the Melbourne risk prediction tool.(1) Melbourne risk prediction tool; and (2) the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications.Sixty-six percent (33/50) underwent hepatobiliary or upper gastrointestinal surgery. Mean (SD) anaesthetic duration was 377.8 (165.5) minutes. The risk prediction tool classified 84% (42/50) as high risk. Overall postoperative pulmonary complication incidence was 42% (21/50). The tool was 91% sensitive and 21% specific with a 50% chance of correct classification.This is the first study to externally validate the Melbourne risk prediction tool in an independent medically defined high-risk population. There was a higher incidence of pulmonary complications postoperatively observed compared to that previously reported. Results demonstrated poor validity of the tool in a population already defined medically as high risk and when applied postoperatively. This observational study has identified several important points to consider in future trials.
Gov't Doc #: 23958308
DOI: 10.1016/
Journal: Physiotherapy
Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Abdominal surgery
Postoperative care
Pulmonary complications
Risk prediction
Digestive System Surgical Procedures.adverse effects
Health Behavior
Middle Aged
Postoperative Complications.epidemiology
Respiratory Tract Diseases.etiology
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Tertiary Care Centers
Appears in Collections:Journal articles

Show full item record

Page view(s)

checked on Feb 3, 2023

Google ScholarTM


Items in AHRO are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.