Trends in smoking initiation and cessation over a century in two Australian cohorts.

Abstract

Historical data on smoking can enhance our comprehension of the effectiveness of past tobacco control policies and play a key role in developing targeted public health interventions. This study was undertaken to assess trends in smoking initiation and cessation in Australia for the period 1910-2005. Rates of smoking initiation and cessation were calculated for participants in two population-based cohorts, the Busselton Health Study and the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study. The effects of time trends, gender and age group were evaluated. Of the 29,971 participants, 56.8% ever smoked. In males, over the period 1910-1999, the rate of smoking initiation in young adolescents remained high with a peak in the 1970s; in older adolescents it peaked in the 1940s and then declined; in young adults it showed a steady decline. In females, the rate of smoking initiation in young adolescents rose sharply in the 1960s and peaked in the 1970s, in older adolescents it increased throughout the period, and in young adults it declined after 1970. In the period 1930-2005, 27.3% of 9,605 people aged 36-50 years who smoked ceased smoking. Rates of cessation in this age group increased throughout but decreased in males after 1990 and plateaued around 2000 in females. Our findings show substantial variation in the efficacy of tobacco control policies across age groups, with a notable lack of success among the younger population.