Rapid evaluation of Coronavirus Illness Severity (RECOILS) in intensive care: Development and validation of a prognostic tool for in-hospital mortality.

2021-10-08

Plečko, Drago

Bennett, Nicolas

Mårtensson, Johan

Dam, Tariq A

Entjes, Robert

Rettig, Thijs C D

Dongelmans, Dave A

Boelens, Age D

Rigter, Sander

Hendriks, Stefaan H A

de Jong, Remko

Kamps, Marlijn J A

Peters, Marco

Karakus, Attila

Gommers, Diederik

Ramnarain, Dharmanand

Wils, Evert-Jan

Achterberg, Sefanja

Nowitzky, Ralph

van den Tempel, Walter

de Jager, Cornelis P C

Nooteboom, Fleur G C A

Oostdijk, Evelien

Koetsier, Peter

Cornet, Alexander D

Reidinga, Auke C

de Ruijter, Wouter

Bosman, Rob J

Frenzel, Tim

Urlings-Strop, Louise C

de Jong, Paul

Smit, Ellen G M

Cremer, Olaf L

Mehagnoul-Schipper, D Jannet

Faber, Harald J

Lens, Judith

Brunnekreef, Gert B

Festen-Spanjer, Barbara

Dormans, Tom

de Bruin, Daan P

Lalisang, Robbert C A

Vonk, Sebastiaan J J

Haan, Martin E

Fleuren, Lucas M

Thoral, Patrick J

Elbers, Paul W G

Bellomo, Rinaldo

COVID-19

corona virus

intensive care

mechanical ventilation

respiratory failure

Journal Article

0000-0002-5433-196X

0000-0001-8739-7896

10.1111/aas.13991

The prediction of in-hospital mortality for ICU patients with COVID-19 is fundamental to treatment and resource allocation. The main purpose was to develop an easily implemented score for such prediction. This was an observational, multicenter, development and validation study on a national critical care dataset of COVID-19 patients. A systematic literature review was performed to determine variables possibly important for COVID-19 mortality prediction. Using a logistic multivariable model with a LASSO penalty, we developed the Rapid Evaluation of Coronavirus Illness Severity (RECOILS) score and compared its performance against published scores. Our development (validation) cohort consisted of 1480 (937) adult patients from 14 (11) Dutch ICUs admitted between March 2020 and April 2021. Median age was 65 (65) years, 31% (26%) died in hospital, 74% (72%) were males, average length of ICU stay was 7.83 (10.25) days and average length of hospital stay was 15.90 (19.92) days. Age, platelets, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, pH, blood urea nitrogen, temperature, PaCO2, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score measured within +/- 24 hours of ICU admission were used to develop the score. The AUROC of RECOILS score was 0.75 (CI 0.71-0.78) which was higher than that of any previously reported predictive scores (0.68 (CI 0.64-0.71), 0.61 (CI 0.58-0.66), 0.67 (CI 0.63-0.70), 0.70 (CI 0.67-0.74) for ISARIC 4C Mortality Score, SOFA, SAPS-III, and age, respectively). Using a large dataset from multiple Dutch ICUs, we developed a predictive score for mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU, which outperformed other predictive scores reported so far.

link

Acta anaesthesiologica Scandinavica 2022; 66(1): 65-75

Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica