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Title: Estimates of the global reduction in liver disease-related mortality with increased coffee consumption: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Dataset.
Austin Authors: Gow, Paul J ;Spelman, Tim;Gardner, Sarah;Hellard, Margaret;Howell, Jessica
Affiliation: Victorian Liver Transplant Unit
Department of Gastroenterology, St Vincent's Hospital, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
Department of Infectious Diseases, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
Centre for Disease Prevention and Epidemiology, Monash University, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
Issue Date: Oct-2020
Date: 2020-08-14
Publication information: Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics 2020; 52(7): 1195-1203
Abstract: Epidemiological data suggest that coffee has a dose-dependent protective effect on liver-related mortality. To estimate the potential impact of increased per capita coffee consumption on global liver-related mortality. Using the Global Burden of Disease 2016 dataset (adults > 15 years), we modelled the impact of increased per capita coffee consumption on liver-related mortality in 2016 for 194 countries using published risk ratios for >2 cups coffee/ day (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.42-0.69) and ≥4 cups/ day (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17-0.50), adjusted for confounders and tested model assumptions using sensitivity analyses. Worldwide, there were an estimated 1,240,201 (95% CI 118 4300-1 354 410) adult liver-related deaths in 2016. Median global liver mortality rate in 2016 was 15 deaths/ 100 000 population/ year (all ages, both genders; IQR 11-21 deaths per 100 000). If all countries with per capita coffee intake ≤2 cups/ day increased to >2 cups/ day, the predicted total number of liver-related deaths would have been 630 947 in 2016 (95% CI 629 693-631 861) with 452 861 (95% CI 451 948-454 116) deaths averted (PPR 7.8 liver-related deaths/ 100 000/ year). If per capita consumptions was ≥ 4 cups/ day, the predicted number of liver-related deaths in 2016 would have been 360 523 (95% CI 359 825-361 992) with 723 287 (95% CI 721 817-723 984) deaths averted (PPR 12.1 liver-related deaths/100 000/year). Increasing per capita coffee consumption to > 2 cups per day on a population level has the potential to avert hundreds of thousands of liver-related deaths annually if the impact of coffee on liver-related mortality is confirmed in clinical trials.
DOI: 10.1111/apt.16020
ORCID: 0000-0002-4810-5122
Journal: Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics
PubMed URL: 32794601
Type: Journal Article
Appears in Collections:Journal articles

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