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Alzheimer's disease (AD) has a long pathological process, with an approximate lead-time of 20 years. During the early stages of the disease process, little evidence of the building pathology is identifiable without cerebrospinal fluid and/or imaging analyses. Clinical manifestations of AD do not present until irreversible pathological changes have occurred. Given an opportunity to provide treatment prior to irreversible pathological change, this study aims to identify a subgroup of cognitively normal (CN) participants from the Australian Imaging, Biomarker & Lifestyle Flagship Study of Ageing (AIBL), where subtle changes in cognition are indicative of early AD-related pathology. Using a Bayesian method for unsupervised clustering via mixture models, we define an aggregate measure of posterior probabilities (AMPP score) establishing the likelihood of pre-clinical AD. From Baseline through to 54 months, visuo-spatial function had the greatest contribution to the AMPP score, followed by attention and processing speed and visual memory. Participants with the highest AMPP scores had both increasing neo-cortical amyloid burden and decreasing hippocampus volume over 54 months, compared to those in the lowest category with stable amyloid burden and hippocampus volume. The identification of a possible pre-clinical stage in CN participants via this method, without the aid of disease specific biomarkers, represents an important step in in utilizing the strength of cognitive composite scores for the early detection of AD pathology. |
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