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Title: The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia.
Austin Authors: Yerramilli, Arvind;Tay, Ee Laine;Stewardson, Andrew J;Fyfe, Janet;O'Brien, Daniel P;Johnson, Paul D R 
Affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, Barwon Health, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
Department of Infectious Diseases, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
Department of Infectious Diseases, Alfred Hospital and Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Victorian Infectious Diseases References Laboratory, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
University of Melbourne, Department of Medicine, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
Department of Medicine and Infectious Diseases, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Health Protection Branch, Department of Health & Human Services, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Issue Date: Sep-2018 2018-09-07
Publication information: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2018; 12(9): e0006757
Abstract: Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas. We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004-2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0-24 months to investigate patterns of correlation. Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757
ORCID: 0000-0003-1163-1978
PubMed URL: 30222751
Type: Journal Article
Appears in Collections:Journal articles

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