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dc.contributor.authorTrubiano, Jason-
dc.contributor.authorVogrin, Sara-
dc.contributor.authorSmibert, Olivia C-
dc.contributor.authorMarhoon, Nada-
dc.contributor.authorAlexander, Adrian A-
dc.contributor.authorChua, Kyra Y L-
dc.contributor.authorJames, Fiona L-
dc.contributor.authorJones, Nicholas R L-
dc.contributor.authorGrigg, Samuel E-
dc.contributor.authorXu, Cecilia L H-
dc.contributor.authorMoini, Nasreen-
dc.contributor.authorStanley, Sam R-
dc.contributor.authorBirrell, Michael T-
dc.contributor.authorRose, Morgan T-
dc.contributor.authorGordon, Claire L-
dc.contributor.authorKwong, Jason C-
dc.contributor.authorHolmes, Natasha E-
dc.identifier.citationPloS one 2020; 15(12): e0243414en
dc.description.abstractWe report on the key clinical predictors of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and present a clinical decision rule that can risk stratify patients for COVID-19. A prospective cohort of patients assessed for COVID-19 at a screening clinic in Melbourne, Australia. The primary outcome was a positive COVID-19 test from nasopharyngeal swab. A backwards stepwise logistic regression was used to derive a model of clinical variables predictive of a positive COVID-19 test. Internal validation of the final model was performed using bootstrapped samples and the model scoring derived from the coefficients, with modelling performed for increasing prevalence. Of 4226 patients with suspected COVID-19 who were assessed, 2976 patients underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing (n = 108 SARS-CoV-2 positive) and were used to determine factors associated with a positive COVID-19 test. The 7 features associated with a positive COVID-19 test on multivariable analysis were: COVID-19 patient exposure or international travel, Myalgia/malaise, Anosmia or ageusia, Temperature, Coryza/sore throat, Hypoxia-oxygen saturation < 97%, 65 years or older-summarized in the mnemonic COVID-MATCH65. Internal validation showed an AUC of 0.836. A cut-off of ≥ 1.5 points was associated with a 92.6% sensitivity and 99.5% negative predictive value (NPV) for COVID-19. From the largest prospective outpatient cohort of suspected COVID-19 we define the clinical factors predictive of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. The subsequent clinical decision rule, COVID-MATCH65, has a high sensitivity and NPV for SARS-CoV-2 and can be employed in the pandemic, adjusted for disease prevalence, to aid COVID-19 risk-assessment and vital testing resource allocation.en
dc.titleCOVID-MATCH65-A prospectively derived clinical decision rule for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.en
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.identifier.journaltitlePLoS Oneen
dc.identifier.affiliationDepartment of Medicine (St Vincent's Hospital), University of Melbourne, Fitzroy, Australiaen
dc.identifier.affiliationDepartment of Infectious Diseases and The National Centre for Infections in Cancer, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Australiaen
dc.identifier.affiliationGeneral Medicineen
dc.identifier.affiliationData Analytics Research and Evaluation (DARE) Centreen
dc.identifier.affiliationElectronic Medical Record and Information and Communications Technology Services, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Australiaen
dc.identifier.affiliationInfectious Diseasesen
dc.identifier.affiliationDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australiaen
dc.identifier.affiliationMedicine (University of Melbourne)en
dc.identifier.pubmedid33296409-, Michael T-
item.fulltextNo Fulltext-
item.openairetypeJournal Article-
item.openairecristype Diseases- (University of Melbourne)- for Antibiotic Allergy and Research- Diseases- Care- Analytics Research and Evaluation (DARE) Centre- Diseases- for Antibiotic Allergy and Research- Medicine- Diseases- Diseases- Diseases- Diseases- Diseases- Diseases- Analytics Research and Evaluation (DARE) Centre-
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