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dc.contributor.authorSjoquist, Katrin M-
dc.contributor.authorRenfro, Lindsay A-
dc.contributor.authorSimes, R John-
dc.contributor.authorTebbutt, Niall C-
dc.contributor.authorClarke, Stephen-
dc.contributor.authorSeymour, Matthew T-
dc.contributor.authorAdams, Richard A-
dc.contributor.authorMaughan, Timothy S-
dc.contributor.authorSaltz, Leonard-
dc.contributor.authorGoldberg, Richard M-
dc.contributor.authorSchmoll, Hans-Joachim-
dc.contributor.authorVan Cutsem, Eric-
dc.contributor.authorDouillard, Jean-Yves-
dc.contributor.authorHoff, Paulo M-
dc.contributor.authorHecht, Joel Randolph-
dc.contributor.authorTournigand, Christophe-
dc.contributor.authorPunt, Cornelis J A-
dc.contributor.authorKoopman, Miriam-
dc.contributor.authorHurwitz, Herbert-
dc.contributor.authorHeinemann, Volker-
dc.contributor.authorFalcone, Alfredo-
dc.contributor.authorPorschen, Rainer-
dc.contributor.authorFuchs, Charles-
dc.contributor.authorDiaz-Rubio, Eduardo-
dc.contributor.authorAranda, Enrique-
dc.contributor.authorBokemeyer, Carsten-
dc.contributor.authorSouglakos, Ioannis-
dc.contributor.authorKabbinavar, Fairooz F-
dc.contributor.authorChibaudel, Benoist-
dc.contributor.authorMeyers, Jeffrey P-
dc.contributor.authorSargent, Daniel J-
dc.contributor.authorde Gramont, Aimery-
dc.contributor.authorZalcberg, John R-
dc.identifier.citationJournal of the National Cancer Institute 2018; 110(6): 638-648-
dc.description.abstractEstimating prognosis on the basis of clinicopathologic factors can inform clinical practice and improve risk stratification for clinical trials. We constructed prognostic nomograms for one-year overall survival and six-month progression-free survival in metastatic colorectal carcinoma by using the ARCAD database. Data from 22 674 patients in 26 randomized phase III clinical trials since 1997 were used to construct and validate Cox models, stratified by treatment arm within each study. Candidate variables included baseline age, sex, body mass index, performance status, colon vs rectal cancer, prior chemotherapy, number and location of metastatic sites, tumor mutation status (BRAF, KRAS), bilirubin, albumin, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, platelets, absolute neutrophil count, and derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Missing data (<11%) were imputed, continuous variables modeled with splines, and clinically relevant pairwise interactions tested if P values were less than .001. Final models were internally validated via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices, and externally validated on a 10% holdout sample from each trial (n = 2257). In final models, all included variables were associated with overall survival except for lung metastases, and all but total white cell count associated with progression-free survival. No clinically relevant pairwise interactions were identified. Final nomogram calibration was good (C = 0.68 for overall and C = 0.62 for progression-free survival), as was external validity (concordance between predicted >50% vs < 50% probability) and actual (yes/no) survival (72.8% and 68.2% concordance, respectively, for one-year overall and six-month progression-free survival, between predicted [>50% vs < 50% probability] and actual [yes/no] overall and progression-free survival). Median survival predictions fell within the actual 95% Kaplan-Meier confidence intervals. The nomograms are well calibrated and internally and externally valid. They have the potential to aid prognostication and patient-physician communication and balance risk in colorectal cancer trials.-
dc.titlePersonalizing Survival Predictions in Advanced Colorectal Cancer: The ARCAD Nomogram Project.-
dc.typeJournal Article-
dc.identifier.journaltitleJournal of the National Cancer Institute-
dc.identifier.affiliationUniversity of Paris Est Creteil, Paris, France Assistance Hopitaux Publique de Paris Henri-Mondor Hospital, Creteil, Franceen
dc.identifier.affiliationNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia-
dc.identifier.affiliationCancer Care Centre, St George Hospital, Kogarah, NSW, Australia-
dc.identifier.affiliationAustin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia-
dc.identifier.affiliationRoyal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards, Australia-
dc.identifier.affiliationCancer Research UK Clinical Centre, Leeds, UK-
dc.identifier.affiliationCardiff University and Velindre Cancer Centre, Cardiff, UK-
dc.identifier.affiliationSt James's Hospital and University of Leeds, Leeds, UK-
dc.identifier.affiliationMemorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY-
dc.identifier.affiliationWest Virginia University Cancer Institute, Morgantown, WV-
dc.identifier.affiliationMartin-Luther-University, Halle, Germany-
dc.identifier.affiliationUniversity Hospital Leuven, Leuven, Belgium-
dc.identifier.affiliationEuropean Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Chief Medical Officer (CMO), Institut de Cancérologie de l'Ouest (ICO) René Gauducheau, Saint-Herblain, France-
dc.identifier.affiliationInstituto do Cancer do Estado de Sao Paulo, Universidade de Sao Paolo, Sao Paolo, Brazil-
dc.identifier.affiliationDepartment of Medical Oncology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands-
dc.identifier.affiliationUniversity Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands-
dc.identifier.affiliationDuke University Medical Center, Durham, NC-
dc.identifier.affiliationUniversity of Munich, Department of Medical Oncology and Comprehensive Cancer Center, Munich, Germany-
dc.identifier.affiliationDepartment of Oncology, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy-
dc.identifier.affiliationKlinikum Bremen-Ost Klinik fur Innere Medizin, Bremen, Germany-
dc.identifier.affiliationDana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA-
dc.identifier.affiliationDepartment of Oncology, Hospital Clínico San Carlos, CIBERONC Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain-
dc.identifier.affiliationDepartment of Medical Oncology IMIBIC, Reina Sofía Hospital, University of Córdoba, CIBERONC Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Córdoba, Spain-
dc.identifier.affiliationUniversity Hospital, Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany-
dc.identifier.affiliationUniversity of Crete, Heraklion, Greece-
dc.identifier.affiliationDavid Geffen School of Medicine at University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA-
dc.identifier.affiliationMayo Clinic, Rochester, MN-
dc.identifier.affiliationFranco-British Institute, Levallois-Perret, France-
dc.identifier.affiliationSchool of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia-
dc.type.austinJournal Article-, Niall C
item.fulltextNo Fulltext-
item.openairetypeJournal Article-
item.cerifentitytypePublications- Oncology- Newton-John Cancer Wellness and Research Centre-
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