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To assess short-term creatinine changes as predictors of acute kidney injury (AKI) when used alone and in combination with AKI risk factors. In this prospective cohort study, we identified all creatinine measurements from frequent point-of-care arterial blood gas measurements from ICU admission until AKI. We evaluated the predictive value of small changes between these creatinine measurements for AKI development, alone and with AKI risk factors. Of 377 patients with 3235 creatinine measurements, generating 15,075 creatinine change episodes, 215 (57%) patients developed AKI, and 68 (18%) developed stage 2 or 3 AKI. In isolation, a creatinine increase over 4.1-7.3 h had a 0.65 area under the curve for predicting stage 2 or 3 AKI within 3-37.7 h. Combining creatinine increases of ≥1 μmol/L/h (≥0.0113 mg/dL/h) over 4-5.8 h with three AKI risk factors (cardiac surgery, use of vasopressors, chronic liver disease) had 83% sensitivity, 79% specificity and 0.87 area under the curve for stage 2 or 3 AKI occurring 8.7-25.6 h later. In combination with key risk factors, frequent point-of-care creatinine assessment on arterial blood gases to detect small, short-term creatinine changes provides a robust, novel, low-cost, and rapid method for predicting AKI in critically ill patients. |
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