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Title: Development and Reporting of Prediction Models: Guidance for Authors From Editors of Respiratory, Sleep, and Critical Care Journals.
Austin Authors: Leisman, Daniel E;Harhay, Michael O;Lederer, David J;Abramson, Michael;Adjei, Alex A;Bakker, Jan;Ballas, Zuhair K;Barreiro, Esther;Bell, Scott C;Bellomo, Rinaldo ;Bernstein, Jonathan A;Branson, Richard D;Brusasco, Vito;Chalmers, James D;Chokroverty, Sudhansu;Citerio, Giuseppe;Collop, Nancy A;Cooke, Colin R;Crapo, James D;Donaldson, Gavin;Fitzgerald, Dominic A;Grainger, Emma;Hale, Lauren;Herth, Felix J;Kochanek, Patrick M;Marks, Guy;Moorman, J Randall;Ost, David E;Schatz, Michael;Sheikh, Aziz;Smyth, Alan R;Stewart, Iain;Stewart, Paul W;Swenson, Erik R;Szymusiak, Ronald;Teboul, Jean-Louis;Vincent, Jean-Louis;Wedzicha, Jadwiga A;Maslove, David M
Affiliation: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY
Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY
Department of Intensive Care, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Palliative and Advanced Illness Research (PAIR) Center and Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
Department of Thoracic Medicine, The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
Department of Medicine, University of Sydney School of Medicine, Sydney, NSW, Australia
The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Regeneron Pharmaceutical, Inc., Tarrytown, NY
Department of Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN
Department of Pulmonology, Sleep Medicine, and Critical Care, New York University, New York, NY
Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA
Research Institute of Hospital del Mar, Barcelona, Spain
Department of Internal Medicine, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH
Department of Surgery, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH
Department of Internal Medicine, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
University of Dundee, Dundee, Scotland
JFK Neuroscience Institute, Hackensack Meridian Health-JFK Medical Center, Hackensack, NJ
School of Medicine and Surgery, Università Milano Bicocca, Monza, Italy
Departments of Medicine and Neurology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA
Department of Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
Department of Medicine, National Jewish Hospital, Denver, CO
Asthma and COPD Group, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
The Lancet, London, United Kingdom
Department of Population and Preventive Medicine, Stony Brook Medicine, Stony Brook, NY
Department of Pneumology and Critical Care Medicine, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
Department of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
Departments of Medicine, Physiology, Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
Department of Pulmonary Medicine, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX
Department of Allergy, Kaiser Permanente Medical Center, San Diego, CA
Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Division of Child Health, Obstetrics & Gynecology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom
Division of Respiratory Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom
Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC
Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Departments of Medicine and Neurobiology, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA
CHU Bicêtre, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, France
Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Department of Critical Care Medicine, Queen's University, Kingston, ON, Canada
Issue Date: May-2020
Date: 2020-03-04
Publication information: Critical Care Medicine 2020; 48(5): 623-633
Abstract: Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of "modifiable risk factors", measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details.
DOI: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000004246
ORCID: 0000-0002-1650-8939
Journal: Critical Care Medicine
PubMed URL: 32141923
Type: Journal Article
Appears in Collections:Journal articles

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