Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ahro.austin.org.au/austinjspui/handle/1/17964
Title: Predicting the likelihood of venous leg ulcer recurrence: The diagnostic accuracy of a newly developed risk assessment tool.
Authors: Finlayson, Kathleen J;Parker, Christina N;Miller, Charne;Gibb, Michelle;Kapp, Suzanne;Ogrin, Rajna;Anderson, Jacinta;Coleman, Kerrie;Smith, Dianne;Edwards, Helen E
Affiliation: La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Alfred Health Clinical School, The Alfred Centre, Prahran, Victoria 3181, Australia
Wound Management Innovation Cooperative Research Centre, Queensland, Australia
School of Health Sciences, Department of Nursing, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
Bolton Clarke, St Kilda, Victoria, Australia
Bolton Clarke, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
Multidisciplinary Skin Integrity Service, Royal Brisbane & Women's Hospital, St. Herston, Queensland, Australia
Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
Issue Date: 13-Mar-2018
EDate: 2018-03-13
Citation: International wound journal 2018; online first: 13 March
Abstract: The aim of this study was to validate a newly developed tool for predicting the risk of recurrence within 12 months of a venous leg ulcer healing. Performance of the tool to predict recurrence within a 12-month period was assessed using Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. Multi-site retrospective and prospective longitudinal studies were undertaken to validate a risk assessment tool for the recurrence of venous leg ulcers within 12 months. In the retrospective study (n = 250), 55% of venous leg ulcers recurred within 12 months, and the risk assessment total score had excellent discrimination and goodness of fit with an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.90, P < .001). The prospective study (n = 143) observed that 50.4% (n = 63) of venous leg ulcers recurred within 12 months of healing. Participants were classified using the risk assessment tool as being at low risk (28%), moderate risk (59%), and high risk (13%); the proportion of wounds recurring at 12 months was 15%, 61%, and 67% for each group, respectively. Validation results indicated good discrimination and goodness of fit, with an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64-0.82, P < .001). Validation of this risk assessment tool for the recurrence of venous leg ulcers provides clinicians with a resource to identify high-risk patients and to guide decisions on adjunctive, tailored interventions to address the specific risk factors to decrease the risk of recurrence.
URI: http://ahro.austin.org.au/austinjspui/handle/1/17964
DOI: 10.1111/iwj.12911
ORCID: 0000-0002-5743-2731
PubMed URL: 29536629
Type: Journal Article
Subjects: recurrence
risk assessment
validation
venous leg ulcers
Appears in Collections:Journal articles

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